Super Bowl eve
Well, it’s Super Bowl eve and it’s time for me to make up my fucking mind about this year’s game. I was talking to a friend today about the game and it feels to me that if I was in Vegas, I’d be treating this game as if I was at the race track, reading the form right up to post time.
My first instinct was the Colts. When the line started at 3, I thought it was a give, because Indianapolis should be the favorite and Peyton Manning has been playing at a historic level this year. The line then crept up, to 5 1/2 and then to 6, before dropping back to 5. This is a weird thing to have happen - Super Bowl lines almost never move. Oddsmakers know how the public is going to bet on a game and the only time they lose money is if the line moves and the final score falls somewhere in that range.
(Quick lesson for non-gambling readers - the line isn’t a prediction, it’s a number designed to split the money between the two teams. If the line is set correctly, half the money will be bet on New Orleans, half on Indianapolis. The movement means more money was coming in on the Colts at first, exposing Vegas to a possible loss.)
That’s funny because everybody is picking the Colts claims that everybody is picking the Saints.
Here’s the thing about Manning - remember two years ago, Tom Brady was playing at a historic level coming into the Super Bowl. And didn’t put up the same numbers in the big game. Further, there’s a long history of that kind of thing. Dan Marino, for instance. The Saints have a good pass defense that forces turnovers. Although Manning’s reputation is that he never throws interceptions, he threw 16 this year, his highest total since 2002.
I’m viewing this game much like New Orleans-Minnesota - the Saints are going to score, the question is how much. Can they win with 28 points? Can they win with 21 points? The thing Manning does better than anyone is control the ball - Indianapolis always leads the league in fewest possessions per game (this year it was 9.6 per game). I expect each team will have 10 possessions tomorrow, which reduces the points that will be scored (the over-under, so good to me this year, is off the table - I wouldn’t touch 56 points).
The Colts were in trouble against the Jets, but then dominated the second half. That won’t happen this week. New Orleans is much, much better than New Jersey. Indianapolis’ defense (and have no doubt, Dwight Freeney will play) is questionable.
Still, I keep going back and forth. Will Manning be the big man? Or will Drew Brees? Will the Colts young receivers come up big again? Or will they be exposed?
My buddy said he thinks Indianapolis will have New Orleans’ tendencies on offense figured out and I answered, “What tendencies?” The Saints will have something new for the Colts. I think they’ll come out and score early, then the game will settle into a slug-fest. In the end …
New Orleans has just been too good in big games this year. I think the Saints will win. It feels like 28-21 or 35-28. If you insist on betting the over under, take the under. But the big bet is to take the points.