Mr. Bitter

Well, it’s Super Bowl eve and it’s time for me to make up my fucking mind about this year’s game. I was talking to a friend today about the game and it feels to me that if I was in Vegas, I’d be treating this game as if I was at the race track, reading the form right up to post time.

My first instinct was the Colts. When the line started at 3, I thought it was a give, because Indianapolis should be the favorite and Peyton Manning has been playing at a historic level this year. The line then crept up, to 5 1/2 and then to 6, before dropping back to 5. This is a weird thing to have happen - Super Bowl lines almost never move. Oddsmakers know how the public is going to bet on a game and the only time they lose money is if the line moves and the final score falls somewhere in that range.

(Quick lesson for non-gambling readers - the line isn’t a prediction, it’s a number designed to split the money between the two teams. If the line is set correctly, half the money will be bet on New Orleans, half on Indianapolis. The movement means more money was coming in on the Colts at first, exposing Vegas to a possible loss.)

That’s funny because everybody is picking the Colts claims that everybody is picking the Saints.

Here’s the thing about Manning - remember two years ago, Tom Brady was playing at a historic level coming into the Super Bowl. And didn’t put up the same numbers in the big game. Further, there’s a long history of that kind of thing. Dan Marino, for instance. The Saints have a good pass defense that forces turnovers. Although Manning’s reputation is that he never throws interceptions, he threw 16 this year, his highest total since 2002.

I’m viewing this game much like New Orleans-Minnesota - the Saints are going to score, the question is how much. Can they win with 28 points? Can they win with 21 points? The thing Manning does better than anyone is control the ball - Indianapolis always leads the league in fewest possessions per game (this year it was 9.6 per game). I expect each team will have 10 possessions tomorrow, which reduces the points that will be scored (the over-under, so good to me this year, is off the table - I wouldn’t touch 56 points).

The Colts were in trouble against the Jets, but then dominated the second half. That won’t happen this week. New Orleans is much, much better than New Jersey. Indianapolis’ defense (and have no doubt, Dwight Freeney will play) is questionable.

Still, I keep going back and forth. Will Manning be the big man? Or will Drew Brees? Will the Colts young receivers come up big again? Or will they be exposed?

My buddy said he thinks Indianapolis will have New Orleans’ tendencies on offense figured out and I answered, “What tendencies?” The Saints will have something new for the Colts. I think they’ll come out and score early, then the game will settle into a slug-fest. In the end …

New Orleans has just been too good in big games this year. I think the Saints will win. It feels like 28-21 or 35-28. If you insist on betting the over under, take the under. But the big bet is to take the points.

I just wanted to blather here for a moment. So Pet the Bunny is dead (R.I.P.), and it’s time to move on. I’m following through on stuff I wrote about many months ago. It feels good. I was at peace about it anyway, but now that it’s finally happening, I’m in a really good place. Branden impressed the guy at the Rockit Room enough that he earned a slot on their acoustic Monday program. I’m really happy for him, I was telling Hurricane Luci about stuff tonight and I just want to say what a great friend she is.

-I want to chop off my hair at the moment. Not for a bad reason, just in the sense that I’m moving on.

Godspeed, Kelley. I want only the best for you. I’m really sorry I can’t be your friend but it’s for the best.

The Honda Civic was towed away yesterday, ending 12 years of fine service to me. The last couple of years, several things started to go wrong, and I was recently trying to get it back to legal (smog issues) while trying not to spend a bunch of money I didn’t have and save up for a new used car.

The fine folks at the city of San Francisco solved my dilemma for me. I’m very Buddhist about this - sometimes outside forces can make you do something you needed to do and this is one of those times. It was frustrating to keep having to pay money into the Honda just to keep it going a few more months. Now, I’m free to just worry about getting a new car.

It’s turning into quite the transition month for me, a time to clean out the closet, thanks to several outside events. Within a couple of weeks a lot of the old will be swept away.

But you know what they say: Rebirth is cool and all, but making babies is a lot more fun. Wait, don’t they say that?

Oh, and I made up a word today: Whasian.

So, the Democrats have their panties in a bunch because of the election of Scott Brown to the Senate this week. First of all, I didn’t know the former Campolindo coach was running. Second, how, exactly, does having the Presidency, a 59-41 parliamentary majority in the Senate and a 256-178 majority in the House of Representatives make you the minority party?

The big talk has been about how this affects the health care debate, that now the Democrats can’t pass health care reform. Maybe. I believe it actually could help the Democrats if they could grow a collective sack. Health care reform in the Senate was watered down to appease the conservative Democratic senators to maintain the 60-vote filibuster-proof super-majority. Restrictions on abortions, the dropping of the public option, giveaways to insurance companies, etc. The Democrats no longer are beholden to that. A better bill with a public option and without the abortion restrictions can now be presented. If the Republicans block it with a filibuster, it will make the Republicans look like the obstructionists who are against health care reform.

Also, letting the Republicans block health care also would rile up the Democratic base, which is necessary to stem the large losses that traditionally happen in midterm elections to the party that holds the White House. One of the biggest mistakes Clinton made in 1994 was telling the party faithful that he would reintroduce health care reform the next day if it was shot down, then not following through after it’s defeat. That demoralized the base and made what would have been a bad election for Democrats much worse.

As for health care reform itself, I’m not particularly upset if it goes up in smoke in its current form. The bill is a mess (not surprising, considering the Republicans and the conservative Democrats). President Obama should introduce a very simple plan. Mine would be expand Medicaid to cover everybody’s basic care, nationalize hospitals, the government pays to staff them and offer loan forgiveness for those who want to study to become doctors if they agree to work in the government hospitals for five years for $100,000 per year before entering private practice. Pay for it by taxing insurance companies and businesses, with the latter rate set around the average that companies pay for health care now. The tax should be progressive, with corporations paying a higher rate than small businesses. If the Senate won’t let it out of committee or it gets voted down, introduce it again the next year. And the next year. And the year after that. Compromising with the evil empire isn’t going to get it done.

And Democrats? Grow a sack.

So I’m sitting here watching Will Ferrell sing “Freebird” on Conan O’Brien’s final Tonight Show and Conan is shredding. What’s up with that??? Uh, and now Jimmy Fallon is singing with the Roots. And pouring a 40 on one of their heads.

I’m pretty sure this will help me make a couple of tough picks on this week’s championship games. Let’s start with the Jets-Colts, a rematch of Super Bowl III. I’m not sure of a lot of things, but I’m pretty sure that game will have no effect on this one. The obvious angle is Peyton Manning - he is unquestionably the best quarterback in football now and making a legitimate case for the all-timers. The only thing lacking is multiple championships. The leaps he’s made the past few years, continuing to get better despite losing all the horses he used to have at receiver and running, is phenomenal. But it’s meaningless unless he can win a couple more titles. Indianapolis is the heavy favorite to do so and anything less will bring back the naysayers who questioned Manning prior to his winning the championship four years ago.

The Jets have been winning with old-fashioned football - running and defense. They have a rookie quarterback and have been successful in the second half of the season having him do little else than hand the ball off and make an occasional timely throw. They did, indeed, beat the Colts in Week 16 when Indianapolis pulled its starters. But think about this - Cincinnati also mailed it in in the season finale and New Jersey has already beaten the Bengals. The argument is that the Jets wouldn’t have made the playoffs if those two teams hadn’t quit. Wouldn’t it be awesome if the Jets then beat both teams in the playoffs and made the Super Bowl?

One relevant statistical note: Indianapolis played a significantly weaker schedule than the Jets did. This has long been a go-to for me in the playoffs - I went against it two years ago when the Patriots played the Giants. Guess who had played a much stronger schedule. My formula is to take the overall record of the opponents, then subtract the team involved. So, New Jersey’s opponents had a 132-124 overall record. Subtract the Jets’ 9-7, and the adjusted record is 123-117. Indianapolis’ adjusted record is 107-133. That’s a big difference.

Indianapolis is an eight-point favorite, so if you’re giving the points, you need to be convinced that the Colts won’t just eek out a win. The old rule always was, don’t take the points in the playoffs unless you think the underdog can win. That’s out the window this week. I think this is a classic sandwich game, with Indianapolis winning a close one. I’m taking the eight. I believe Indy will win because of Manning. But the adjusted opponents record is not to be trifled with.

Which leads us to Minnesota-New Orleans. Oddly enough, both teams were helped all year by playing terrible schedules. Minnesota’s adjusted opponents record is 100-140 while New Orleans’ is 97-143. Three games is an insignificant difference, so there’s no insight here. But if the Jets make the Super Bowl, I’m loading up big on Jersey.

There was a report today that Minnesota receiver Percy Harvin may not play due to migraines. I have got to believe he will play, but if the headaches are bad enough that the Vikings are worried, that can’t be good. Minnesota will have to score this week. I know the Vikings won 34-3 last week, but that included the “Fuck You” touchdown at the end and 10 other points in the fourth quarter that came after the Cowbows switched to desperation mode. I’m not taking anything away from the effort, just pointing out that Brett Favre’s stats had some padding. If the Vikings enter the fourth quarter with just 17 points, I think they’re going to be behind. And there’s nothing the Saints secondary would love more than to have Brett Favre in desperation mode.

The key will be the Minnesota defense. The Vikings came out last week and just dominated the Cowboys. However, except for the Dallas game, no good team has stopped New Orleans’ offense. That’s important because the Saints seemed to lose interest midway through the season (after the New England game), then picked it up last week. The question is, “What can the Vikings hold the Saints to?” 35? 28? If the Vikings hold the Saints to 28, they have a chance. If they hold them to 21 (which would astound me), they win.

I think New Orleans will break 30, and I don’t think Minnesota’s offense will be able to keep up. Not convinced? Here’s one more thing working against the Vikings - Prince’s new team fight song. Go ahead, click the link. I’ll wait.

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Alright, back? Seriously, they can’t possibly win. The line is 3 1/2 and I’m giving the points.

It’s been raining all week here and I’m about ready for it to let up. Plus, today is really cold. I have to go out to St. Mary’s tonight for a basketball game with my buddy, Bill Grier. On the way, I have to pick up more Baywoof for distribution tomorrow.

I’m waiting on some checks and the money’s tight right now. Darragh and Jessica are engaged, by the way! Woohoo! Both are thinking of subletting their apartments and mentioned them to me. I told them I need to get the car situation taken care of before I can start thinking about paying higher rent than I do.

Last night, the Graves Brothers Deluxe played a record release party at Bottom of the Hill. I was dreading the night because of some recent news I heard that I can’t really get into here, thinking it would be like a really bad Thanksgiving dinner, but it turned out fine. ExWK and STA came with me and after the Graves played three songs with the last band, we got out of Dodge.

I’m pretty sure Pet the Bunny is finished, although I guess there’s a possibility we might play again. We haven’t even practiced since our October show anyway. I’m bummed about it but it also feels like the right time to get on with everything else. Willy the Mailman asked me about the band last night and I answered, “I have no idea,” laughed, and asked him if I could come into his studio and do some recording on my own and he said yes. So, I’m going to start working toward that.

And now, off to Moraga!

You are looking live at the Bean Bag Cafe in San Francisco, California, where Damin Esper is preparing to make his predictions for the NFL Divisional Playoffs.

(Thanks, Brent, for doing the opening for me)

I’m here with my incredibly slow laptop (it’s been being a bitch all week), perusing the lines and picking the games. I was a tidy 3-1 last week and if I was a gambling man and if gambling was legal, I would have won big on the over in the Eagles-Cowboys game. That’s if, of course.

I only got to watch a tiny bit of the Cardinals-Packers game - I had to ref some CYO games in the afternoon, then cover San Diego-San Francisco basketball at 5 p.m. Basically, my buddy Matias sent me updates via Facebook chat. Imagine my surprise when I looked at the television monitors at courtside and saw the score was 38-24, then two minutes later got a message that the Packers had tied it up.

One thing that might surprise people about my job is that often I don’t get to watch big games on TV because I’m off covering something else.

Anyhoo, poor me. Clearly, it was one of the best playoff games ever and Aaron Rodgers’ propensity to hold onto the ball too long ultimately cost Green Bay.

Now, to this week’s games. Remember, home teams tend to dominate this weekend for two reasons: 1) They had a week off, and 2) The teams that get first round byes usually are the better teams. All four are favored and they should be. But the line that dropped is the Cowboys at the Vikings - it’s just 3. And I think for good reason. There’s plenty of evidence to back it up, but my guy feeling is Dallas wins this game outright (sorry, Branden). Favre has been more miss than hit in the playoffs the last few years, Peterson dropped a step (as well as several balls) this year, and the Cowboys tend not to blitz as much as other teams, making it harder to tell when it’s coming. Favre eats up blitzes normally, but I think he’ll struggle this week. The Metrodome is one of the biggest home field advantages in sports - that’s the counter to this argument. Still, I’m going with what my intuition tells me - Dallas outright.

I’m struggling with the Indianapolis-Baltimore game a little, only because I’m not sure how highly to rate the Ravens defense. Baltimore almost beat the Colts back when the Colts were still trying, but a Joe Flacco interception late killed the Ravens. That game, however, was in Baltimore. I have no doubts the Ravens can contain Indianapolis better than most teams. And the Colts have done poorly in the playoffs coming off a bye. But do I really believe Flacco is going to do enough to win the game on the road? He has three road playoff victories in two years, but what has he done in those games? I think Indianapolis gets the turnover it needs at the right time to pull it out. I’d lay off the spread if I was betting, and take the under (44). If you insist on betting the spread, give the 6 1/2 - I don’t think you should try to sandwich the spread too often in a playoff game.

New Orleans is  a 7-point favorite over Arizona in what everybody is expecting to be another track meet. The only problem with that theory is that the Saints played pretty good defense this year, especially in big games. I think this is a really good matchup for New Orleans. I am a little worried that the Saints have been playing mediocre football for the second half of the season - coming into the playoffs, I thought they were the most likely team to be upset. But I just don’t believe Arizona is scoring 51 points again, and I have the feeling the Cardinals will need to if they want to win. Give the points and take the over (an absurd 57 - I can’t recall a playoff game with that big a number).

Which leads us to Jets-Chargers. A few years ago, they played a real good game in San Diego with the Jets pulling out a victory on a Doug Brien field goal, of all things.

(Quick aside on Brien - he went to De La Salle High School and California, so when he made the NFL with the 49ers, he was given a weekly column in the Contra Costa Times. He then proceeded to treat it as an actual column instead of a bullshit “insiders” account of what it’s like in an NFL locker room. He would talk about Native American rights and offered political endorsements before the election. It was awesome. Of course, this really, really upset the sports editors, who wanted a typical jock-sniffing column. And, the fact that some of them were Rush Limbaugh-types politically. So it lasted one season, and he was let go.)

At some point, I guess I have to stop doubting Norv Turner, right? I mean, the Chargers have won three consecutive division titles, they beat the Colts last year in the playoffs. Just because when I saw him up close, he was failing with the Raiders, and before that with the Redskins, doesn’t mean he’s a terrible coach, right? The ownership situations at his previous two stops aren’t exactly ideal for coaching success, right?

Um, yeah, sure. But he’s still Norval Turner, from Martinez, Calif. I mean, if he won the Super Bowl, I’d be looking around for Spock with a goatee. Down will be up, night will be day, dogs and cats will be living together … I just have to believe that something will come up to derail the apocalypse.

Will it be the Jets? Maybe. Obviously, they have that old fashioned combination of a great running game and defense that used to win every year. San Diego needs to be able to run the ball on New Jersey at least a little, and they are stuck with the LaDanian Tomlinson of today, not the one of four years ago. Darren Sproles killed the Colts a year ago, but I think the Jets can shut him down, and then tee off on Phillip Rivers. The knock on New Jersey is that Mark Sanchez is a rookie quarterback who plays like a rookie quarterback. The Jets have been winning the last month because they have taken Sanchez out of the picture. If they fall behind early, they are finished as there is no way Sanchez can lead them back through the air.

This game is going to be decided early. If the Jets take a lead or stay close, I think they pull it out. If the Chargers come out firing, it’ll be a rout. I would only bet this game with my worst enemy’s money. My pick - the Chargers going away. May God have mercy on our souls.

As always, super-49er fan Gerard has some plans for his team. Here they are:

Ok so here’s my deal. In free agency you take three guys LG Logan Mankins from New England and RG Stephen Neal from New England. Yeah, that’s right, I’m blowing up the Offensive Line. WHAT?!??!!! Third guy Give Denver our 2011 1st rounder (and if push comes to shove I’d also give em a 3rd or 4th-but supposed young franchise QB’s weren’t going for that much last year, so I think our 1 might do it ) for Brandon Marshall.

My draft goes like this 1st two 1s-some combination of CJ Spiller and the best RT available. This kid is ridiculous+no one says that if you pound the rock you can only get 3 yards a crack-Chris Johnson showed the nuclear threat of a speed back+it helps us on punt & kick returns. RT is Trent Williams/Anthony Davis or Brian Buluga-any of these stud tackles is fine with me-to be honest, my priority is Spiller. We need that crazy speed that breaks defenses even when they do everything right. He has speed balance nice vision always seems to pick the right seam and can also run over dudes. Gimme.

Come back in the 2nd round and grab Sergio Kindle OLB from Texas and George Selvie from South Florida in the 3rd also at OLB/DE.In the 4th Get a Safety-Van Eskridge from E. Carolina or Harry Coleman from LSU. Or you could go corner with Kyle Wilson from Boise St. or if SydQuan Thompson is still there-scoop him for value at the 4th round. 5th Round QB Sean Canfield-Oregon State-Have to have some future options at QB. 6th round another Safety Robert Johnson from Utah 7th Round Jarvis Geathers OLB/DE Jarvis Geathers from Central Florida.

So in 2010-2011 we look like this going into camp. Smith,Hill,Nate and Sean Canfield. We have our supposed guy and with a rebuilt Offensive Line and a laser-guided nuclear tipped arsenal at his disposal it better be clobberin’ time for Alex-if not our QB of the future Nate/Sean, someone else will have a locked and loaded offense to work with.

New Line Left Tackle Staley with Sims backing him up. LG Logan Mankins-large upgrade over Baas. Center-Heitman-still not my favorite center ever, but should thrive with professional guards surrounding him. RG Stephen Neal-Still in his prime. Superbowl experience. Huge upgrade. RT #1 draft pick Trent Williams,Anthony Davis or Brian Bulaga. Stud rookie tackle completes the genetic reconstruction of our line. Good times.

Receiving corps now ridiculously deep and explosive-Marshall/Crabtree/Morgan Davis and Walker  with Jason Hill and Brandon Jones also seeing time. With the ability to pour our our bench and dump the playbook on someone’s head-not that our offensive coordinator doesn’t suck, but Jesus what a wealth of talent to work with.

HB-Gore & Spiller and sometimes Coffee. With a rebuilt line we might actually be able to achieve this legendary “balance” Singletary keeps talking about. To me though balance means we get our 21 points in the first Quarter (because we can) and then we run the ball down the opponents throat (because we can). And we also establish tendencies and go against tendencies because in addition to scoring points and locking down the line of scrimmage it’s fun to screw with your opponents head.

On defense we make an effort to upgrade the pass rush by way of #s-we were pretty good at forcing turnovers last year-the addition of two more fast OLB’s should push those #s even higher and boost our ability to get to the quarterback-I’m willing to stand pat on the defensive line for a year so that we improve our linebacking corps and add depth to the secondary at Safety.

So Franklin at Nose-locker room seems to love him and he is coming off his best year-Sopoaga,Smith and McDonald. Overall I’m fairly satisfied with these guys and generally speaking we are tough to run on. Outside guys-some combination of Lawson/Haralson/Brooks/Kindle/Selvie and Geathers should be able to get to the QB….or at least give you fine legal representation.

Secondary-not shutdown by any means, but I think more heat from up front would benefit them as much as not losing their starting corners. Clements is overpriced in terms of his coverage, but he is very solid in the run game.Spencer is not a shutdown guy (outside of games against AZ) but this is the best we’ve seen him look-overall his coverage was pretty decent.. Bly-gambles a bit and gives us some occassional unfortunate showboating but frankly I think the D benefits from having a nickle guy that can and does gamble from time to time. Keep him with any kind of reasonable offer. Tarell Brown-coming around.Nice depth. Dashon Goldson-stayed healthy and was a human missile-tendency to force turnovers a plus. Lewis-probably fading, but still has something in the tank and can teach our new kids Johnson & Coleman how to take his job. Overall even if the D stands pat the radical upgrade of the offense probably helps them perform better since there won’t be as many 3 and outs and stalled drives. If our new pass rushers get even our normal low production 4-5 sacks a piece in a rotation with Lawson and Brooks and Haralson that is probably 4 series that don’t generate 1st downs. Considering how the Niners were kept out of the playoffs by a few plays in a few games even a modest increase in pressure could be golden for the Niners.

Two stories, lot’s of pissed off people. Good to know I still have it. Friday, the story on the World’s Worst Mom was published. The president of the PTA (who commented on the item about it) called me at home on Sunday after it ran in the West County Times. She wanted to stress that the event is closed to the public, that they don’t have the permits to have open events, etc. So, to be very clear, the PTA meeting in Kensington with Lenore Skenazy is limited to Kensington Elementary families and some other local PTAs who have been invited.

Meantime, at Santa Clara on Friday night, I watched the worst men’s Division I basketball game of my life. San Diego beat Santa Clara, 55-46, and both teams were eyeball-gougingly bad. My story reflected that. On Sunday, I covered San Diego at San Francisco. After the game, San Diego coach Bill Grier asked me what my approach would be. Then he said that my line, “this is a family newspaper,” was uncalled for.

Anyway, the Toreros lost to the Dons and here’s that story so you can decide what kind of approach I took.

Hey kids, I’m at the lovely Leavy Center covering Santa Clara-San Diego hoops for the San Diego Union-Tribune. Yeah, me too. So instead of paying attention to the game, I’m going to post my NFL picks for the weekend.

Cincinnati is a 2 1/2-point favorite over the New York Jets. I’m trying not to overthink this one. Rookie quarterback on the road. Bengals played pretty good most of the year, although they were a little soft at the end. The Jets pounded the first string last week, but that was a must-win game for them and I assume Cincinnati held some stuff back.

I think Cincinnati is capable of more big plays so I’m giving the points.

Dallas is 3 1/2 over Philadelphia. I thought Philadelphia was set up to win the NFC before last weekend. Now, I’m not so sure. The Eagles will obviously blitz a lot more on defense this week, but the blitz only works if either the offensive line on the other side sucks or if you can mix it up and catch teams off guard. I have the feeling Dallas will handle the blitz, and if the Cowboys do, the Eagles are in a lot of trouble. I’m going with the home team again - Cowboys win handily, if not by as much as last week.

New England is 3 1/2 over Baltimore, a curious line given Wes Welker’s season-ending injury. It’s not that I can’t see the Patriots winning - they have a lot of weapons and their defense is playing better. But Baltimore was the AFC runner-up a year ago, won two playoff games on the road a year ago, looked good early in the season before hitting a rut (a common occurance for good teams). Meantime, New England will be replacing Welker with Julian Edelman. He’s local, folks, a quarterback in high school and junior college. I just don’t see it. Baltimore with the outright win.

Arizona-Green Bay is a pickem. Presumably because the Packers have been playing well, hopefully not because anybody was dumb enough to take anything from last week’s game. The Cardinals pulled Warner early and didn’t play to win while the Packers, even though they didn’t need to, played as if their playoff lives depended on it. Look, I’d love to see NFL teams required to play their starters throughout these games as much as anyone - mainly, because I think it’s unfair to fans to charge full price and then play backups. I’m sorry, but if I paid $100 a ticket, I better see your starters. But there was nothing gained by Green Bay’s actions. The Anquan Boldin injury is troublesome, but the combination of me not trusting Green Bay, the game being at Arizona, the Cardinals keeping the mileage down on God’s Quarterback … it all adds up to an Arizona win.

OK, 3:33 to go in the first half here. Time to start paying attention.